NHL teams looking to find breakout talent need to be successful in the first round of the draft or face the monumental challenge of gleaning significant players from much longer odds.
On average, over 70% of first round picks make the NHL, but a significantly fewer amount (approximately 45% by one previous study by this author) become impact players (or top six forwards).
What’s interesting is an idea of “safe” or what players have the highest chance to succeed. Historically, scouts have often favored large, defensively-minded players as “safe” picks. Conversely, when modelling off height and scoring, the safer players are always the higher scoring players unless dealing with players on the extremely small end (69 inches or less [5’9”])
With that being said, using nothing but scoring and height in their draft year, we’ll take a look at the top 10 “safest” forwards for the 2015 draft, to become NHL players of any caliber.
Cohort criteria: within +/- 4 NHLE’s in their draft year. Within +/- 2 inches of height.
1. Connor McDavid
CSS Rank: NA 1
NHL : 100%
Top Six: 100%
Elite: 100%
It’s no surprise to see the phenom Connor McDavid at the top of the list. We actually had to expand the criteria just to find 2 comparable players, both of which became elite talents. Based on nothing but the stats, Connor McDavid is as good as scouts say he is.
2. Jack Eichel
CSS rank: NA2
NHL liklihood: 100%
Top Six: 100%
Elite: 100%
The back and forth between scouts on Eichel and McDavid lines up with the statistical projections. Though it was easier to find comparable players for Jack Eichel, they were no less impressive than Connor McDavid’s. All 4 players become elite level NHL contributors.
3. Mitchell Marner
CSS rank: NA6
Nhl: 100%
Top Six: 100%
Elite: 100%
The diminutive Mitchell Marner has put up astounding numbers. Only 3 comparable players were found and all 3 became elite point contributing players, despite their sizes. Ranked at 6’th in NA Central Scouting, Mitchell represents the first disagreement between scouts and statistical projection in this years draft.
4. Dylan Strome
CSS rank: NA4
NHL: 100%
Top Six: 100%
Elite: 67%
The big center is the final forward in the 2015 draft to hit the 100% success rate within their cohort. While scouts love Dylan’s size, he is the only member of the 100% club that did not produce solely “elite” level scorers. Statistically, Strome’s floor would be that of Derrick Brassard, while he compares on the high to Jason Spezza and Taylor Hall.
5. Evgeny Svechnikov
CSS rank: NA17
NHL: 72%
Bottom Six: 20%
Top Nine: 64%
Top Six: 52%
Top Line: 39%
Elite: 18%
The first surprise of the draft, Evgeny Svechnikov may be a victim of “the Russian Factor”. Ranked as low as 17 in NA by CSS, Svechnikov not only offers a 72% chance of NHL success, but over 50% to become an impact player. Is his ranking indicative of the 2015 depth, or will Svechnikov end up a real steal in the back half of the first round?
6. Timo Meier
CSS rank: NA10
NHL: 70%
Bottom Six: 16%
Top Nine: 64%
Top Six: 55%
Top Line: 41%
Elite: 20%
Meier’s production and size point to fantastic things in the future for the big winger. While slightly less likely to succeed then Svechnikov, Meier’s cohort stacks up as slightly more high end then the Russian Winger’s. Scouts will dock him due to circumstances (playing with Nikolaj Ehlers) but from a statistics only standpoint, Meier looks like a fantastic pick.
7. Kyle Connor
CSS rank: NA13
NHL: 70%
Bottom Six: 20%
Top Nine: 64%
Top Six: 52%
Top Line: 39%
Elite: 18%
Kyle Connor pulled an identical cohort to Timo Meier. Ranked as another mid round pick, his 72% success rate, >50% top six success rate, and the fact that he’s a center make Kyle Connor an extremely attractive pick for anyone who misses out on one of the big 4.
8. Daniel Sprong
CSS rank: NA20
NHL: 54%
Bottom Six: 23%
Top Nine: 43%
Top Six: 31%
Top Line: 23%
Elite: 9%
Statistically Daniel Sprong marks the beginning of a third tier of 2015 draft eligible forwards. Comparable players to Sprong succeeded in the NHL at a 54% rate, with almost 1 in 4 becoming a legitimate top line scorer. Projected as a late round first, those are odds most teams would be happy to get.
9. Anthony Beauvillier
CSS rank: NA30
NHL: 53%
Bottom Six: 13%
Top Nine: 51%
Top Six: 40%
Top Line: 28%
Elite: 17%
Beauvillier is a perfect example of “Scout Safe” v.s. “Statistically Safe”. The scorer has been ranked as a late 1st to 2nd round pick due to scout’s fears that his size makes him “a risk”. This makes sense when looking at his bottom six potential vs top six potential compared to bigger players like Sprong, Connor, or Svechnikov, but it ignores one key fact: Beauvillier is still far more likely to be a top six NHL player then those ranked before him by CSS are to become NHL players of any sort.
10. Mathew Barzal
CSS rank: NA11
NHL: 49%
Bottom Six: 19%
Top Nine: 42%
Top Six: 30%
Top Line: 20%
Elite: 10%
At 49% Barzal is the last forward ranked in the first round who projects to approximately a 50-50 or better chance of success (though Filip Chlapik and Pavel Zacha both get an honorable mention at 47% and 46% respectively). Only a single inch taller than Anthony Beauvillier, the discrepancy in ranking between the two players is stark, and it will be interesting to see how many picks separate the two come June.
Bonus – But what about IMPACT players?
There remains a belief that a high likelihood of success doesn’t always correlate to a high likelihood of high level success when it comes to NHL draft picks.
But lets explore that:
Rank
| NHL | NHL% | Top Six | Top six% | Elite | Elite % | |
| 1 | Connor McDavid | 100 | Connor McDavid | 100 | Connor McDavid | 100 |
| 2 | Jack Eichel | 100 | Jack Eichel | 100 | Jack Eichel | 100 |
| 3 | Dylan Strome | 100 | Dylan Strome | 100 | Mitchell Marner | 100 |
| 4 | Mitchell Marner | 100 | Mitchell Marner | 100 | Dylan Strome | 67 |
| 5 | Evgeny Svechnikov | 72 | Timo Meier | 55 | Timo Meier | 20 |
| 6 | Timo Meier | 70 | Kyle Connor | 55 | Kyle Connor | 20 |
| 7 | Kyle Connor | 70 | Evgeny Svechnikov | 52 | Evgeny Svechnikov | 18 |
| 8 | Daniel Sprong | 54 | Anthony Beauvillier | 40 | Anthony Beauvillier | 17 |
| 9 | Anthony Beauvillier | 53 | Daniel Sprong | 31 | Daniel Sprong | 10 |
| 10 | Mathew Barzal | 49 | Mathew Barzal | 30 | Travis Konecny | 10 |
Reordering each list shows us that while there is some slight changes between success rate and highest level success rate (Svechnikov drops, Beauvillier rises) only one player gets added to the list in Travis Konecny.
While it is likely there could be a much wider spread and more significant jumps when looking at players projected to go in later draft rounds, at the high end it would seem that the higher your ceiling, the more likely you are to be an NHL player.
This is a topic we will be keeping our eye on, so look out for a futur analysis on the notion of “safe” players v.s. “high risk” from later parts in the draft.