The Ones to Watch: The Undrafted Class of 2015
With the 2015 NHL entry draft all wrapped up we’re gearing up for a couple of busy weeks of articles and breakdowns.
We’re also working on a major update that will fix some of the issues we have and give us completely updated numbers. Once we’ve updated, we’ll be giving you a complete breakdown and ranking of the 2015 NHL entry draft and how your favorite teams did.
In the meantime, we decided to take a look at some of our favorite players that did not hear their name called on draft day.
As Dev Camps open and teams look towards training camps in September, we’ve compiled a list of some of the top players left untouched at the entry draft that could provide some very valuable “free” talent to NHL teams looking to improve their prospect depth.
A number of these players you may recognize from our previous articles, but we thought hey were interesting enough to bare repeating.
Cohort Criteria: Within 2 inches of height and +/- 4 Cumulative NHLE scoring for Draft Years seasons up to and including the 2015. EX: A player who was in DY +2 for the 14-15 season, will be compared based on Cumulative NHLE’s for their DRAFT YEAR, DRAFT YEAR +1, and DRAFT YEAR +2, provided the data is available.
10. Ethan Spaxman D
Cohort size:149
NA rank: 181
NHL %: 26%
Third Pair/Depth %: 6%
Top Four %: 18%
Top Pair %: 7%
We mentioned Spaxman in our “Top Players over 6’3″ article (Spaxman in 6’4″ 193 lbs) and we were mildly surprised when he went undrafted on draft day. As a large defender who managed to put up a decent number of points, he does not look like the usual type of player that NHLE’s and PCS’s identify but are ignored by traditional scouts and GM’s. Either way, Spaxman is a big defender who represents a 26% chance of NHL success, which would be a great value add for any team’s training camp and prospect roster.
9. Rihard Bukarts LW
Cohort size:149
NA rank: unranked
NHL %: 26%
Bottom Six %: 14%
Top Six %: 12%
Top Line %: 3%
Rihards Bukarts was featured in our top 10 over-age player article as well, and makes this list at #9 (tied with Spaxman and another familiar face at #8). Bukarts is a small skilled winger who played for the Brandon Wheat Kings and pulled himself 26% success rate in the NHL. While top-line potential is nearly non-existent, he has an even split chance of being a top six player, or a bottom six player and would be a great free addition by an astute GM come training camp.
8. Luke Philp C
Cohort size:77
NA rank: 172
NHL %: 26%
Bottom Six %: 16%
Top Six %: 10%
Top Line %: 4%
Luke Philp rounds out the three way tie with a similar, though slightly more low end, chances of success as Rihard Bukarts. The slightly taller though still undersized center, Luke Philp represents a 26% chance of NHL success with a 16% chance of being a bottom six player. With a similar projection setup to Bukarts, Philp could be a good gamble for a team not afraid to forgo size for the sake of skill with a free prospect.
7. Garrett McFadden D
Cohort: 37
NARank: unranked
NHL %: 30%
Third Pair: 3%
Top 4: 27%
First pair: 19%
Garrett McFadden was an unranked defender in CSS’s final scouting that pulled a 30% success rate in the NHL. The undersized defender (5’10”) had a 27% likelihood of becoming a top four quality player. Those are odds generally reserved for players taken in the top 3 rounds of the draft, not passed over by every team in the league. A team in need of some additional defense prospects and ones not afraid to gamble on scoring would be wise to extend an invitation to Garrett in the fall.
6. Tim McGauley
Cohort: 284
NA rank: 165
NHL %: 30%
Bottom six: 18%
Top six: 12%
First line: 6%
Another name we’ve seen before, over-age Tim McGauley represents a 30% chance of success in the NHL and the #6 spot on this list. While more likely a bottom six player then a top six, McGauley is the tallest forward to make our list at 6’0″. He has skill, and while size isn’t exactly a plus for McGauley, he’s not as big of a wild card as some of the smaller players that have made our lists. McGauley’s 12% likelihood of top 6 success is nothing to sniff at and he’s the first forward on our list to break the 5% first line likelihood barrier with a 6% rating.
5. Casey Fitzgerald
Cohort: 38
NA rank: 148
NHL %: 32 %
Third pairing: 3%
Top Four: 29%
Top Pairing: 21%
Casey Fitzgerald represents a 32% chance of success and an impressive 21% chance of being a first pairing defender. Like most players on this list, he’s small, but his comparisons are really impressive. A this point of our list, all the players mentioned would not have looked out of place as 3rd round picks on draft day. Fitzgerald is not an over-age player, and with a 1/3 chance of playing in the NHL at some capacity, he really should see an invite to a camp.
4. Vladimir Tkachev
Cohort: 134
NA rank: 159
NHL %: 33%
Bottom six: 16%
Top six: 17%
First line: 9%
Vladimir Tkachev hits the list again after appearing in our top over-age class. Tkachev is likely the biggest surprise to go undrafted as he was offered a contract by the Edmonton Oilers in the off season of last year but it was ruled ineligible. Many were surprised to see the Oilers pass on Tkachev as he had another decent year for his development and still has a healthy projection of being an NHL forward at 33% with 9% chance of being a first line player. Do not be surprised if Tkachev gets a contract offer from the Oilers or another club this off-season- one that will be legal.
3. Sebastian Aho
Cohort: 27
EU rank: 13
NHL %: 33 %
Third Pair: 4%
Top Four: 19%
Top Pair: 11%
Sebastian Aho (the Swedish one) is an over-age European defender who we thought quite highly of. He appeared on our over-age list and while ranked by the EU branch of CSS he did not hear his name called for the second year in a row. Aho is small for a defender(as so many of these players are) but his scoring says he could still be a very useful offensive player. with a 33% chance of success, a 19% chance of being a top four defender, and the fact that he’s a 19 year old euro that could step onto any AHL team, Aho could be a very savvy free agent pickup for any team looking for defensive depth.
2. Dante Salituro
Cohort: 21
NA rank: 109
NHL %: 33%
Bottom six: 14%
Top six: 19%
First line: 10%
Dante Salituro was the highest ranked skate by CSS on our list that did not get drafted. The diminutive center (5’8″) was a high scoring dynamo but was passed over due to obvious size concerns. In the new NHL though, he could prove to be an excellent gamble and addition to a teams roster. Not only is a he a 1/3 chance of making the NHL, he has 19% chance of being a top six player, and 10% chance of being a first line player. Salituro is the most likely forward on our list to be a high performing NHL forward and we look forward to tracking his progress, wherever he lands.
1. Loik Levellie
Cohort: 52
EU rank: 25
NHL %: 46 %
Third Pair: 4%
Top Four: 42%
Top Pair: 25%
Loik Leveille is the #1 undrafted player by NHLE ranking*. Leveille is small for a defender (6’0″) but not dramatically undersized, and his recorded weight of 223 lbs’ means he’s thick enough to play the mans game. That being said, scouts must have seen something as his 46% NHL success rate, 42% top 4 success rate, and 1 in 4 chance of being a top pairing defender wasn’t enough to get him noticed on draft day. On the other hand, Leveille has already been invited to the Canadian’s development camp and, if signed, will be a great addition to their prospect depth. We had Leveille ranked at 25th overall in our rankings, and his projections are inline with many 1st round draft picks.
The Caveat *:
There was one player whom we left off this list that did place higher then Loik Leveille. If you checked out our initial draft ranking you’ll know who we are talking about.
Gabe Bast is an extremely small defender (5’8″) who put up 40 points the BCHL in his draft year. That converts to an NHLE of 9, which gives him a cohort success rate of 67%, a top 4 floor for success(67%), and a 33% chance of being a high scoring first pairing defender.
The catch? He had a cohort of only 6 players and was an unranked prospect by CSS. This is one time where we simply could not just trust in the numbers, especially when dealing with a sample size that was so small not due to extreme talent, but just an unusual collection of statistics.
That being said, we felt we would be remiss to exclude him completely.
Honorable Mentions:
Two players who were just barely on the outside looking in on our list are the Left Winger Dryden Hunt, and the big center Hayden McCool. Both 24% chances to become NHL players and both more probable bottom sixers then top sixers (12% for Hunt, 15% for McCool) these two had appeared on our over-age list (Hunt) and our 6’3″+ list (McCool) respectively. Though the odds are slightly longer then those listed in the article, neither player is small, (McCool is in fact quite big) and both could be great additions and worth contract offers in training camp from an astute GM.
Conclusions:
The three main things that stand out to us when reviewing this list are :
- Over-age Players
- Small Scorers
- Defensemen
Five players on our list were previously profiled as over-agers to watch. This remains to be a potential area of great inefficiency by NHL gm’s and the NHL scouting community in general. All 5 of these over-age players offer odds far better then what most teams are receiving with picks from the 4th round and on, and should be seen as excellent value signing’s if they are given contracts over the off-season.
Size continues to be a concerning factor for the scouting community at large. The group of forwards on this list are exclusively under 6’0″ tall (except for HM Hayden McCool) but still generated a lot of offense in their respective leagues. As the NHL moves towards a more skill game and players like Tyler Johnson and Johnny Gaudreau it will be interesting to see how long this trend continues.
Finally, and most surprisingly, was the apparent ignoring of defenders. While most of these defenders were what teams would call undersized, both Loik Leveille and Ethan Spaxman offered average to plus size while providing very good success rates. This leaves us wondering what potential issues may have been identified by these players to keep scouts away. On the other hand, McFadden, Fitzgerald, and Aho are all small relative to their NHL peers and may have less opportunity to succeed at the next level.
All in all, it will be interesting to see if any of these players receive camp invitations or contract offers in the coming months, as they all look to be legitimate NHL prospects, regardless of whether the scouting community at large has recognized yet, or not.
Our favorites: For Fun, if we had 4 contracts to give out to camp invites they would be Loik Leveille, Dante Salituro, Ethan Spaxman, and Hayden McCool.