Here There Be Giants: Top Players Over 6’3″ in the 2015 NHL Draft
Scouts love size. Every year we see small skilled players passed over at the draft table for behemoths who may or may not be able to play hockey.
While drafting for size has resulted in its fair share of busts, getting a player who has both size and skill remains a home run at the draft table.
To this end, we broke down the draft list into only players 6’3” or taller, ran the comparisons on them and crunched the numbers. The following are the 10 safest players 6’3” or tallerin CSS’s ranking.
Cohort Criteria: +/- 4 NHLE’s in their DRAFT YEAR ONLY(excluding DY-1, projected upon an 82 game schedule). +/- 2 inches in height.
10. Brandon Carlo
Cohort size: 101
NA rank: 25
NHL %: 29%
Third Pair/Depth %: 9%
Top Four %: 20%
Top Pair %: 9%
Elite %: 3%
Every traditionalist’s favorite safe d-man, Brandon Carlo starts off our list as the 10th safest Big Boy. While you may think “hey, that’s not bad!” or “that makes sense!” Know this: there are 6 skaters on the list ahead ranked below Carlo by ISS. Still, getting a big Defenseman that isn’t incapable of scoring is always a good move.
9. Gabriel Gagne
Cohort: 44
NA Rank: 34
NHL %: 30%
bottom siz/Depth %: 14%
Top Four %: 16%
Top Pair %: 7%
Elite %: 5%
The big 6’4” winger comes in at number nine. Considering he’s ranked a full 10 slots behind Brandon Carlo, Gabriel Gagne could represent decent value for a second round draft pick. Big wingers are hard to come by, and Gagne’s comparable put him at 1/3 chance of becoming an NHL player (about par for the course for a 2nd round draft selection).
8. Nikita Pavlychev
Cohort: 10
NA rank: 153
NHL %: 30%
Bottom Six/Depth %: 30%
Third line: 30%
Top Six%: 0%)
Nikita who? Pavlychev is a giant man. At 6’6” the big Russian has had a mediocre scoring season in the USHL (16 points in 42 games). That being said, 30% of Pavlychev’s comparable did become career NHLers. NOTE: there was an extremely small sample size for Pavlychev, and furthermore: all but one of the successful NHLers was a career face puncher. If Pavlychev is going to make the NHL, he’s probably not going to be doing it with his goal scoring. Still, ranked at 153 in North America, Pavlychev’s probability of success is extremely high for a skate ranked to go in the last two rounds of the draft.
7. Chris Martinet
Cohort: 23
NA rank: 81
NHL %: 30%
Third Pair: 30%
Top 4: 22%
First pair: 17%
Elite %: 4%
Ranked 81 In North America, the 6’6” defender is the 7th safest player over 6’3”. At a 30% success rate and projected to go around the 4th round, Chris Martinet could represent really good value for a depth pick. Most defenders like Martinet panned out as 3rd-2nd pairing defensemen. Though a 17% probability of being a top pairing defenseman is nothing to sniff at for a 4th round pick.
6. Jordan Greenway
Cohort: 45
NA rank: 47
NHL %: 31%
Bottom six: 22%
Third line: 18%
Top six: 9%
First line: 7%
Elite %: 4%
At 6th on our list is expected 2nd round draft-pick-to-be Jordan Greenway. Ranked 47 in NA he’s likely to go in the back half of the 2nd round, and offering a 31% success rate is about par for the course in that slot. Interesting to note: Greenway represents a very similar success rate to previously mentioned Gabriel Gagne, but is ranked 10 slots later in the draft.
5. Lawson Crouse
Cohort: 71
NA rank: 5
NHL %: 37 %
Bottom six: 21%
Third line: 23%
Top six: 15%
First line: 10%
Elite %: 4%
Lawson Crouse is likely the most contentious player in this year’s draft. Having great size, a good WJC tournament, and “not terrible” scoring has caused Crouse to skyrocket up draft rankings, finishing the season at NA 5. Unfortunately, Crouse’s scoring puts his comparable at only a 37% success rate. While a respectable rate, and a decent prospect, according to the projection Crouse should be much lower than his CSS rank of 5.
4. Paul Bittner
Cohort:62
NA rank: 26
NHL %: 40 %
Bottom six: 23%
Third line: 26%
Top six: 18%
First line: 11%
Elite %: 5%
All that separates Paul Bittner from Lawson Crouse is 10 lbs and 20 slots on the CSS draft ranking. With identical height and similar production, Paul Bittner represents a higher chance of success then Lawson Crouse, though their cohorts are very similar. This may be a situation where the scouts are right: while their statistical performances were similar, Bittner played with far superior line mates, playing third wheel to Nicolas Petan and Oliver Bjorkstrand in Portland. It will be interesting to compare the development of Bittner and Crouse over their careers.
3. Pavel Zacha
Cohort: 90
NA rank: 8
NHL %: 46 %
Bottom six: 24%
Third line: 36%
Top six: 21%
First line: 13%
Elite %: 6%
8th ranked Pavel Zacha is the third safest of the giants. At 46% likelihood of NHL success, Zacha is a legitimately safe prospect, with decent top six upside and first line potential. Furthermore, Zacha’s transition to the NA game has scouts thinking his offense could be much higher.
2. Thomas Schemitsch
Cohort: 40
NA rank: 91
NHL %: 58%
Bottom six: 8%
Third line: 58%
Top six: 50%
First line: 25%
Elite %: 10%
The most surprising player on the list goes to #2, Thomas Schemitsch. At 6’3” and with a very decent scoring pace Schemitsch may be one of the most underrated prospects by CSS in this year’s draft. Ranked as a third-fourth round pick, Schemitsch’s 58% NHL success rate would put him in a 3 way tie for third on our top 10 defensemen draft list. You simply don’t find odds like Schemitsch outside of the 2ndround and any team would be lucky to land him.
1. Dylan Strome
Cohort: 3
NA rank: 4
NHL %: 100 %
Bottom six: 0%
Third line: 0%
Top six: 100%
First line: 67%
Elite %: 67%
And the number 1 spot for a player over 6’3” goes to Dylan Strome. It’s no surprise as the consensus top 5 pick offers up an elite blend of size and skill that teams drool over. His production marks him as a near lock to succeed in the NHL as a top six player with reasonable elite level upside.
Honorable Mentions:
Ethan Spaxxman ranked number 12 on this list, but holds a CSS scouting rank of just 181. With a 24% success rate, those are odds usually reserved for 2nd round picks, and he could be a sleeper to watch.
Another notable is Hayden McCool. Other then having the best last name, McCool pulled a similar 24% success rate and would represent great value with where he’s projected to go at #147.
Conclusions:
While some players receive an unwarranted boost in draft ranking due to their height, this study revealed a number of players undervalued by CSS. The question will remain wether a player like Crouse or Carlo is worth their CSS projection and wether or not teams agree with that. It will also be interesting to keep an eye on the mid to late round selections that this study uncovered as being good value players such as: Pavlychev, Martinet, Schemitsche, Spaxxman, McCool, overager Mark Simpson (19%), and the previously unmentioned Philippe Myers (19%).